Polling shows Greg Ballard immediately competitive as independent in Secretary of State race
INDIANAPOLIS, IN, March 2, 2026 – In light of recent reports that former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard is considering a run for Indiana Secretary of State as an independent, Independent Indiana is releasing new polling conducted last fall as part of its Report on Competitive Elections.
The survey, conducted by InAct, LLC from October 24–November 1, 2025, polled 400 likely Indiana general election voters. The margin of sampling error is ±4.9% at the 95% confidence level.
The data show that Ballard would begin a three-way race in an immediately competitive position.
Ballard Within Striking Distance in Three-Way Ballot
When voters were presented with a three-way ballot including:
Beau Bayh (Democrat) – 31.5%
Diego Morales (Republican) – 28.5%
Greg Ballard (Independent) – 23.8%
Undecided – 16.3%
Ballard begins the race within five to eight points of both major-party candidates — well within a competitive range in a multi-candidate contest.
More Than Double the Generic Independent Baseline
When voters were asked to choose between a generic Republican, generic Democrat, and generic Independent, the Independent option received just 10%.
When that Independent was identified as Greg Ballard, support rose to 23.8% — a 13.8-point increase.
This indicates Ballard’s strength reflects candidate-specific appeal rather than generic protest sentiment.
Strength Among Younger Voters
Among voters ages 18–34:
Ballard: 31.8%
Morales: 28.0%
Bayh: 28.0%
Ballard leads outright among younger voters, a bloc that is historically more open to non-major-party candidates.
Statewide and Rural Competitiveness
The survey found Ballard’s support is geographically balanced:
In Central Indiana: 31.8%
In all other counties: 20.8%
Among small-town and rural voters: 25.9%
In traditionally Republican-leaning rural areas, Ballard remains within striking distance of the GOP nominee.
Independent Candidacies Viewed Positively or Neutrally by 89% of Voters
When asked how they react to a candidate running as an independent:
Positive: 31.3%
Neutral: 57.5%
Negative: 7.2%
A combined 88.8% of voters respond either positively or neutrally, suggesting independent candidacies are broadly acceptable in Indiana’s current political environment.
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